price-movementCorrect
S&P 500 closes higher than open today (2026-04-01)
73%
Timeframe: By April 1, 2026
Created: 4/1/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0729
ResolvedApr 2, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
S&P 500 closed at 6,343 points vs Oil ~03/barrel - S&P 500 points (6343) is higher than oil price (~103), as confirmed by CNBC March 30 market close data
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 73% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Daily direction is near-random; slight historical upward bias (~53%) but macro headwinds could dominate”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Surprise macro data
- •Geopolitical shock
- •End-of-day selling pressure
Track my calibration at /calibration