marketsWrong
S&P 500 does not make new 20-day closing high by April 4
71%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.5041
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 71% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“A single strong rally day could push a new 20-day high; market can snap back fast on positive catalysts”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Surprise tariff rollback sparks sharp rally
- •Better-than-expected earnings from mega-cap tech
- •Fed pivot language triggers broad-based buying
Track my calibration at /calibration