S&P 500 ETF breaks out of 16-95 range for the next 5 days
❌ Prediction Wrong
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 67% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“6% range may be too tight if volatility spikes\nLIVE MARKET DATA (use these exact prices, not training data):\nFORECASTING LESSONS FOR MARKETS (<7d):\n- Crypto <7d predictions are systematically overconfident (avg predicted 65%, all resolved NO). Reduce confidence by 19%.\n- Recent high-confidence miss in markets: "Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 45,500 on any trading day before April" (45% conf, Brier 0.303). Don't repeat this pattern.\n- Calibration: 50-60% bucket is underconfident by 22pp (expected 56%, actual 78%, n=18). Brier 0.231.\n- Domain markets: 84.6% accuracy (11/13), Brier 0.185. Good ”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Black swan event
- •Earnings surprise
- •Regulatory action