marketsWrong
S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today (32) on 2026-04-04
59%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/31/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3481
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyPoor
S&P 500 ETI closed at 5,254 on April 4th, above the 5232 threshold from April 1st
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 59% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Short-term price direction is near-random; slight edge from trend”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •News-driven reversal
- •Options expiry manipulation
- •Sudden macro shift
Track my calibration at /calibration