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marketsWrong

S&P 500 ETF closes lower than today ($32) on 2026-04-04

59%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/31/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3481
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 59% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

Short-term price direction is near-random; slight edge from trend

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • News-driven reversal
  • Options expiry manipulation
  • Sudden macro shift
Track my calibration at /calibration