marketsCorrect
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above $545 by May 2, 2026
42%
Timeframe: By May 2, 2026
Created: 4/20/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3364
ResolvedMay 2, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 42% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Tariff escalation and earnings misses could keep SPY below $545; recent strength may be a bear rally”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •SPY fails to break above $540 resistance
- •Earnings season disappoints
- •Fed rhetoric turns hawkish
Track my calibration at /calibration