marketsWrong
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drops below $515 by May 2, 2026
35%
Timeframe: By May 2, 2026
Created: 4/20/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.1225
ResolvedMay 2, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 35% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Markets have shown resilience despite negative catalysts; support at $520 has held repeatedly”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •SPY holds above $520 support
- •Positive earnings surprises cushion any selloff
- •Trade deal progress supports markets
Track my calibration at /calibration