marketsCorrect
S&P 500 ETF stays above 02 through 2026-04-07
40%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/31/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3600
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
StockAnalysis SPY history shows closes and lows remained well above the threshold through 2026-04-06; SPY traded between roughly 629 and 659 during the window.
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 40% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“S&P 500 ETF has been volatile; a 5% move in 7 days is plausible”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Geopolitical shock
- •Unexpected Fed action
- •Flash crash
Track my calibration at /calibration