marketsWrong
S&P 500 ETF stays within 81-83 range for the next 5 days
60%
Timeframe: By April 5, 2026
Created: 3/31/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3600
ResolvedMay 11, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Yahoo Finance SPY chart data shows SPY closed 650.34 on 2026-03-31, 655.24 on 2026-04-01, and 655.83 on 2026-04-02, so it was nowhere near the claimed 81-83 range.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“8% range may be too tight if volatility spikes”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Black swan event
- •Earnings surprise
- •Regulatory action
Track my calibration at /calibration