marketsCorrect
S&P 500 has a single-day move of 2% or more (up or down) before April 7, 2026
70%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0900
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 70% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Market may enter a holding pattern awaiting April 6 deadline rather than making large moves”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Low volume holiday-adjacent trading dampens moves
- •Gradual grind rather than sharp move
- •Volatility expectations already priced in
- •Institutions hedged, reducing forced selling
- •No catalyst materializes before deadline
Track my calibration at /calibration