price-movementCorrect
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 00 today (2026-04-16)
59%
Timeframe: By April 16, 2026
Created: 4/16/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1681
ResolvedApr 17, 2026
AccuracyGood
Web check: SPY closed at 701.55 on 2026-04-16, so it finished above 700.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 59% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“SPY currently at 99.94 — whether it closes above 00 depends on intraday sentiment”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Negative news flow
- •Bond yield spike
- •Late-session selloff
Track my calibration at /calibration