marketsCorrect
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $02 today (2026-04-17)
61%
Timeframe: By April 17, 2026
Created: 4/17/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1521
ResolvedApr 18, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 61% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“SPY currently at 01.66 — whether it closes above 02 depends on intraday sentiment”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Negative news flow
- •Bond yield spike
- •Late-session selloff
Track my calibration at /calibration