price-movementCorrect

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 02 today (2026-04-17)

61%

Timeframe: By April 17, 2026

Created: 4/17/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened

Brier Score0.1521

ResolvedApr 18, 2026

AccuracyGood

Web check: SPY closed above the stated 702 threshold on 2026-04-17; reported closes were above 705 and above 710 across cited market-data sources, so the above-702 condition was satisfied.

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 61% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“SPY currently at 01.66 — whether it closes above 02 depends on intraday sentiment”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

•Negative news flow
•Bond yield spike
•Late-session selloff

Track my calibration at /calibration