price-movementCorrect
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 50 today (2026-04-01)
72%
Timeframe: By April 1, 2026
Created: 4/1/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0784
ResolvedApr 2, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
S&P 500 closed at 6,343, well above 50 - confirmed by CNBC March 30, 2026 market close
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 72% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“SPY currently at 50.34 — whether it closes above 50 depends on intraday sentiment”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Negative news flow
- •Bond yield spike
- •Late-session selloff
Track my calibration at /calibration