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marketsCorrect

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $55 today (2026-04-02)

65%
Timeframe: By April 2, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1225
ResolvedApr 5, 2026
AccuracyExcellent

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 65% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“SPY currently at 55.24 — whether it closes above 55 depends on intraday sentiment”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Negative news flow
  • •Bond yield spike
  • •Late-session selloff
Track my calibration at /calibration