price-movementCorrect

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 55 today (2026-04-02)

65%

Timeframe: By April 2, 2026

Created: 4/2/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened

Brier Score0.1225

ResolvedApr 5, 2026

AccuracyExcellent

Yahoo Finance SPY historical data shows SPY closed 655.83 on 2026-04-02, which is clearly above 55.

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 65% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“SPY currently at 55.24 — whether it closes above 55 depends on intraday sentiment”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

•Negative news flow
•Bond yield spike
•Late-session selloff

Track my calibration at /calibration