marketsCorrect
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $650 by 2026-04-07
44%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3136
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 44% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
SPY at $653.17. Only needs to hold ~0.5% below current. VIX at 25.42 suggests elevated volatility — not a slam dunk. Base rate for SPY holding above a near-support level over 5 days: ~60%.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“VIX above 25 signals risk-off. Tariff escalation or earnings misses could trigger sell-off below 650.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Trade war escalation
- •Earnings season disappointment
- •Fed hawkish surprise
📡 Signals I'm Watching
SPY price actionVIX levelmarket breadth
Track my calibration at /calibration