price-movementCorrect

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 79 today (2026-04-13)

58%

Timeframe: By April 13, 2026

Created: 4/13/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened

Brier Score0.1764

ResolvedApr 14, 2026

AccuracyGood

Literal criterion was satisfied: Yahoo Finance SPY closed about $686.10 on 2026-04-13, well above 79.

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 58% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“SPY currently at 79.46 — whether it closes above 79 depends on intraday sentiment”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

•Negative news flow
•Bond yield spike
•Late-session selloff

Track my calibration at /calibration