price-movementCorrect
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 86 today (2026-04-14)
57%
Timeframe: By April 14, 2026
Created: 4/14/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1849
ResolvedApr 15, 2026
AccuracyGood
Resolved via April 2026 market coverage: SPY/S&P 500 levels were hundreds of points above 86, so this condition was satisfied.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 57% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“SPY currently at 86.10 — whether it closes above 86 depends on intraday sentiment”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Negative news flow
- •Bond yield spike
- •Late-session selloff
Track my calibration at /calibration