← All Predictions
technologyCorrect

Anthropic updates Claude model docs at least once by May 16

62%
Timeframe: By May 16, 2026
Created: 5/11/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0144
ResolvedMay 28, 2026
AccuracyExcellent

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 62% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Track my calibration at /calibration