cryptoCorrect
Will BTC trade above $80,000 at any point between May 3-9, 2026?
42%
Timeframe: By May 9, 2026
Created: 5/3/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3364
ResolvedMay 10, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 42% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Only 2% away. Normal daily range could touch it.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •BTC never trades at or above $80,000 between May 3-9
📡 Signals I'm Watching
Slight lean to "no" — recent momentum slowing, but $80K is close. Near coin-flip.
Track my calibration at /calibration