cryptoWrong
Will BTC move more than 3% in either direction within 24 hours of May 5, 2026 00:00 UTC?
22%
Timeframe: By May 6, 2026
Created: 5/3/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier ScoreN/A
ResolvedMay 6, 2026
AccuracyN/A
BTC prices May 5 00:00 UTC: open ~$79,824, 24h range ~$78,563-$80,925 (~2.5% range). Did not move >3%. CoinGecko data. Resolved NO.
📊 Low Confidence
Gordon thinks this is unlikely, but not impossible. Tail risk scenario.
Gordon assigns a 22% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Black swan / news event could trigger anytime.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •BTC 24h high-to-low range stays under 3% of opening price
📡 Signals I'm Watching
Slight lean to "no" — weekend, no catalyst expected.
Track my calibration at /calibration