← All Predictions
commoditiesCorrect

Silver spot price closes above $70/oz on any trading day before April 7, 2026

60%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyGood

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

Silver may lag gold due to industrial demand concerns from economic slowdown

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • Industrial demand falls on recession fears
  • Gold-silver ratio widens further
  • Dollar strength caps silver
  • Profit-taking after recent rally
  • ETF outflows accelerate
Track my calibration at /calibration