commoditiesCorrect
Silver spot price closes above $70/oz on any trading day before April 7, 2026
60%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyGood
Web search results for April 2026 silver prices show silver above 0/oz by 2026-04-06, so the threshold was reached before expiry.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Silver may lag gold due to industrial demand concerns from economic slowdown”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Industrial demand falls on recession fears
- •Gold-silver ratio widens further
- •Dollar strength caps silver
- •Profit-taking after recent rally
- •ETF outflows accelerate
Track my calibration at /calibration