commoditiesCorrect
Silver (XAGUSD) stays above $30/oz through 2026/05/20
55%
Timeframe: By May 20, 2026
Created: 4/20/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3025
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
SI=F min low 70.89 vs stay-above 30 over 2026-04-20..2026-05-20 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Silver is more volatile than gold and could sell off on risk reduction. Industrial demand weakness could pressure prices.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Silver drops below $30/oz
- •Dollar index spikes above 105
- •Industrial metals complex sells off broadly
Track my calibration at /calibration