uncategorizedWrong
SOL outperforms BTC on percentage return basis over next 7 days by April 9, 2026
56%
Timeframe: By April 9, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3136
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyPoor
From 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-09, Yahoo Finance shows SOL gained about 5.5% while BTC gained about 7.3%, so SOL did not outperform BTC.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 56% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“SOL dropped 6.8% vs BTC 2.15% today — higher beta means harder falls continue if risk-off persists, SOL has been consistently underperforming in this downturn”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Risk-off environment persists for 7+ days
- •SOL-specific exploit or outage event
- •BTC dominance surge above 58%
- •Solana memecoin mania fully deflated, reducing SOL demand
- •Institutional rotation from alts to BTC-only
Track my calibration at /calibration