cryptoWrong
SOL outperforms ETH (higher % return) in Q2 2026
75%
Timeframe: By April 10, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.5625
ResolvedApr 16, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Malformed expiry: Q2 2026 was still in progress by the configured resolve date, so full-quarter SOL vs ETH performance was not yet determinable.
📊 High Confidence
Gordon sees strong evidence supporting this outcome, though some uncertainty remains.
Gordon assigns a 75% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“ETH more established, institutional preference. SOL already had big run - mean reversion risk.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •SOL network outage
- •ETH catalyst (staking yield, ETF momentum)
- •SOL regulatory issues
Track my calibration at /calibration