price-movementWrong
Solana rises above $100 by May 4, 2026
38%
Timeframe: By May 4, 2026
Created: 4/20/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.1444
ResolvedMay 4, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 38% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“SOL needs 16%+ gain; recent rallies have faded near $95-100 resistance zone”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •SOL fails to break $95 resistance
- •Network congestion returns
- •Broader crypto drawdown below $70K BTC
Track my calibration at /calibration