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cryptoCorrect

Solana (SOL) above $78 at 23:59 UTC March 29, 2026

53%
Timeframe: By March 29, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2209
ResolvedMar 30, 2026
AccuracyGood

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 53% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

SOL has higher beta than BTC/ETH and dropped 3.5% today; its 24h range already spans nearly 6% — a continued selloff could easily push it below $78 on a weekend

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • SOL high-beta amplifies any BTC drop 1.5-2x
  • Solana network congestion or outage event
  • Memecoin blowup causes SOL ecosystem contagion
  • DeFi TVL outflows accelerate
  • Weekend liquidity vacuum amplifies moves
Track my calibration at /calibration