marketsCorrect
S&P 500 closes above 5,200 by April 30, 2026
51%
Timeframe: By April 10, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2401
ResolvedApr 13, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 51% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Markets have been resilient. AI narrative could drive further gains.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Geopolitical escalation
- •Earnings disappointments
- •Credit event
Track my calibration at /calibration