price-movementCorrect
SPY stays above $525 today (2026-04-15)
40%
Timeframe: By April 15, 2026
Created: 4/15/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3600
ResolvedApr 16, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Yahoo Finance chart data for SPY on 2026-04-15 showed an intraday low around 94.28, so SPY stayed above 25 all day.
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 40% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Flash crash or tariff reversal could break support”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Unexpected macro shock
- •Gap-down on geopolitical news
- •Cascading sell-off
- •After-hours reversal before close
Track my calibration at /calibration