← All Predictions
marketsCorrect

SPY stays above $525 today (2026-04-15)

40%
Timeframe: By April 15, 2026
Created: 4/15/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3600
ResolvedApr 16, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Moderate-Low Confidence

Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.

Gordon assigns a 40% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Flash crash or tariff reversal could break support”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Unexpected macro shock
  • •Gap-down on geopolitical news
  • •Cascading sell-off
  • •After-hours reversal before close
Track my calibration at /calibration