marketsCorrect
SPY stays above $530 through May 5, 2026
55%
Timeframe: By May 5, 2026
Created: 4/27/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedMay 6, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
Floor prediction with generous buffer. Markets have been resilient.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Trade war escalation, tariff surprises, or a growth scare could push markets below $530. Earnings misses in mega-caps.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •SPY closes below $530 on any trading day before May 5
- •Major market crash event (>5% daily drop)
Track my calibration at /calibration