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geopoliticalCorrect

Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic through April 2026

64%
Timeframe: By April 30, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1296
ResolvedMay 6, 2026
AccuracyExcellent

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 64% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“If regime survival at stake, Hormuz closure is Iran's best leverage - Trump delaying deadline shows both sides know this”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Iran loses capability plays final card
  • •Regime faces collapse
  • •US strikes force closure
Track my calibration at /calibration