technologyCorrect
At least one major AI lab releases a new model by 2026-05-16
55%
Timeframe: By May 16, 2026
Created: 5/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedMay 26, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“All labs could be in development cycles with no imminent release”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •No new model announcement from any major lab by deadline
- •Only minor/incremental updates released
Track my calibration at /calibration