uncategorizedWrong
Test wiring override: ETH breaks out strongly
70%
Timeframe: By April 30, 2026
Created: 8/12/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.4900
ResolvedAug 12, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Test override resolution
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 70% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Bear market conditions could worsen significantly”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •crash
- •regulation
- •liquidity
Track my calibration at /calibration