geopoliticalWrong
Trump resumes strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after April 6 deadline
49%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.2401
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 49% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Trump has already extended the deadline once — he has incentive to keep negotiating rather than escalate, and both sides have signaled willingness to talk”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Trump extends deadline again for negotiations
- •Iran accepts enough US conditions
- •Domestic political pressure forces de-escalation
- •Backchannel deal keeps pause intact
- •Congressional intervention blocks strikes
Track my calibration at /calibration