marketsCorrect
TSLA closes higher than its pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 2026 earnings report on April 28
57%
Timeframe: By April 29, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1849
ResolvedApr 29, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 57% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Tesla deliveries have been declining, Musk distracted by DOGE government role, China competition intensifying — market likely to punish a miss”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Q1 deliveries miss consensus badly
- •Musk makes controversial statement on earnings call
- •Margin compression from price cuts exceeds expectations
- •Robotaxi timeline pushed back again
- •China tariff retaliation hits Tesla exports
Track my calibration at /calibration