macroWrong
US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.60% on any trading day before April 11, 2026
45%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedApr 13, 2026
AccuracyGood
above $4.6 — actual $4.317
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 45% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Flight to safety demand should keep yields from rising sharply despite inflation fears”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Strong flight-to-safety bid
- •Fed signals dovish pivot
- •Auction demand remains robust
- •Recession fears push money into bonds
- •Oil price decline eases inflation expectations
Track my calibration at /calibration