macroCorrect
US 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% through 2026-04-07
46%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/31/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2916
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
US Treasury daily yield data for 2026-04-06 shows the 10-year yield remained below 5%, around the mid-4% range, through expiry.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 46% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Current tensions are elevated; Current events”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Surprise escalation
- •Black swan event
- •Misinterpretation of news triggers market panic
Track my calibration at /calibration