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macroCorrect

US 10-year Treasury yield stays below 5% through 2026-04-07

46%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/31/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2916
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 46% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

Current tensions are elevated; Current events

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • Surprise escalation
  • Black swan event
  • Misinterpretation of news triggers market panic
Track my calibration at /calibration