product-launchCorrect
US announces new Section 301 tariffs targeting at least 3 additional countries following April 28 hearings, before May 15, 2026
55%
Timeframe: By May 15, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedMay 16, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Section 301 investigations cover 86 countries but legal challenges after Supreme Court IEEPA ruling may slow implementation — admin could opt for targeted actions on fewer countries”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Supreme Court ruling constrains Section 301 authority
- •Administration delays action pending legal review
- •Trade negotiations produce exemptions instead
- •Congressional opposition blocks implementation
- •WTO challenge threatens enforcement
Track my calibration at /calibration