geopoliticalCorrect
US does NOT conduct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before April 11, 2026
67%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1089
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
News coverage through 2026-04-11 did not show confirmed US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 67% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Trump has shown willingness to extend deadlines and may continue diplomacy past April 6”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •April 6 deadline extended again
- •Diplomatic track shows enough progress
- •Trump calculates oil price impact too costly
- •Congressional pushback on escalation
- •Backchannell opens with Iran
Track my calibration at /calibration