macroCorrect
USD/JPY trades above 160.00 at any point before April 11, 2026
45%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3025
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 45% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“BOJ may intervene verbally or directly to cap USD/JPY at 160”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •BOJ surprise rate hike
- •MOF verbal intervention
- •Japanese repatriation flows
- •US Treasury yields decline sharply
- •Risk-off flows boost yen
Track my calibration at /calibration