marketsWrong
VIX closes above 25 on April 4
68%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.4624
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyPoor
VIX closed below 25, estimated ~22.5 based on March 2026 levels of 25.25
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 68% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“VIX could mean-revert quickly if tariff fears are priced in and markets stabilize; VIX spikes are typically short-lived”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Tariff deal or delay announcement calms markets
- •Strong jobs report reduces recession fears
- •VIX mean-reversion below 20 on low-vol week
Track my calibration at /calibration