marketsCorrect
VIX closes above $30 on any trading day before April 7, 2026
55%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“VIX could retreat if Iran diplomatic progress is made before April 6 deadline”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Surprise Iran deal announced
- •Oil drops sharply on Hormuz reopening
- •Markets find technical support and bounce
- •Volatility sellers step in at elevated levels
- •Fed signals emergency support
Track my calibration at /calibration