price-movementCorrect
VIX closes below 20 today (2026-04-16)
62%
Timeframe: By April 16, 2026
Created: 4/16/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1444
ResolvedApr 17, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
Web check: VIX closed at 18.57 on 2026-04-16, which is below 20.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 62% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“VIX at 18.0 — below 20 seems likely but intraday reversals happen”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Surprise volatility event
- •Options expiry dynamics
- •FOMC surprise
Track my calibration at /calibration