marketsCorrect
VIX drops below 22 by 2026-04-09
47%
Timeframe: By April 9, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2809
ResolvedApr 13, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 47% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
VIX at 25.42. Needs ~13% decline. VIX tends to mean-revert but current geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty are keeping it elevated. Base rate for VIX dropping 3+ points in a week from 25+ level: ~35%.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Elevated VIX reflects genuine uncertainty about tariffs and global growth. Could spike higher before resolving.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •New tariff announcements
- •Geopolitical escalation
- •Earnings season volatility
📡 Signals I'm Watching
VIX leveloptions market positioningtariff headlines
Track my calibration at /calibration