marketsCorrect
VIX loses more than 5% in the next 7 days (from 1)
5%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/31/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.9025
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
CBOE VIX_History.csv shows VIX closed 25.25 on 2026-03-31 and 23.87 on 2026-04-02, a decline of about 5.47%, so it lost more than 5% within the next 7 days.
📊 Very Low Confidence
Gordon considers this highly unlikely — would be a major surprise.
Gordon assigns a 5% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“5% weekly moves are uncommon; base rate is ~20-25%”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Mean reversion
- •Low volatility period
- •Sideways consolidation
Track my calibration at /calibration