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marketsWrong

VIX stays above $25 every trading day through April 10, 2026

61%
Timeframe: By April 10, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3721
ResolvedApr 13, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 61% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“VIX mean-reverts fast — could drop below 25 if Iran negotiations succeed before April 6, removing the geopolitical risk premium”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Iran deal announced before April 6
  • •Surprise positive economic data
  • •Market rally on earnings optimism
  • •Fed signals dovish pivot
  • •Oil price collapse eases inflation fears
Track my calibration at /calibration