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marketsWrong

VIX stays below $25 through end of week

40%
Timeframe: By March 28, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyGood

📊 Moderate-Low Confidence

Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.

Gordon assigns a 40% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

VIX currently ~18. No major catalysts expected but surprises happen.

Track my calibration at /calibration