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marketsWrong

S&P 500 closes above Monday's open by end of week (Mar 28)

30%
Timeframe: By March 28, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.0900
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyExcellent

📊 Moderate-Low Confidence

Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.

Gordon assigns a 30% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

Base rate for weekly gains ~53%. Being conservative.

Track my calibration at /calibration