marketsWrong
S&P 500 closes above Monday's open by end of week (Mar 28)
30%
Timeframe: By March 28, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.0900
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 30% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
Base rate for weekly gains ~53%. Being conservative.
Track my calibration at /calibration