price-movementCorrect
Will Bitcoin hold above $70,000 through May 2026?
30%
Timeframe: By May 18, 2026
Created: 4/18/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.4900
ResolvedMay 18, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 30% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“A major sell-off, regulatory action, or macro shock could break support”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •BTC daily close below $70,000 before June 1
- •Major exchange insolvency
- •Fed emergency rate hike
Track my calibration at /calibration