price-movementCorrect
Will crude oil (WTI) trade above $65 per barrel by May 31, 2026?
30%
Timeframe: By May 31, 2026
Created: 4/18/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.4900
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
CL=F max high 110.93 vs reach 65 over 2026-04-18..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 30% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Demand destruction from recession fears, OPEC+ overproduction, or inventory builds”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •WTI closes above $65
- •OPEC+ cuts hold
- •Summer driving season demand materializes
Track my calibration at /calibration