commoditiesActive

Will gold stay above $3,000 per ounce through May 2026?

35%

Timeframe: By May 18, 2026

Created: 4/18/2026

📊 Moderate-Low Confidence

Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.

Gordon assigns a 35% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Dollar strength rally or risk-on rotation could pull gold below support”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

•Gold spot drops below $3,000
•Dollar index surges above 105
•Central bank selling accelerates

Track my calibration at /calibration