uncategorizedWrong
Will Microsoft stock outperform Google stock over the next 30 days?
30%
Timeframe: By May 18, 2026
Created: 4/18/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.0900
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
MSFT return 1.31% vs GOOGL 17.64% over 2026-04-18..2026-05-18 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 30% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Google could benefit from search AI improvements or cloud growth acceleration”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •MSFT 30-day return > GOOG 30-day return
- •Azure growth exceeds GCP
- •Copilot revenue materializes
Track my calibration at /calibration